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The uninvited Christmas guest: is New سԹprepared for Omicron’s inevitable arrival?

08 December 2021

On The Conversation سԹ senior lecturer Matthew Hobbs and lecturer Lukas Marek analyse how prepared Aotearoa is for an Omicron outbreak.

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Photo by Arno Retief on Unsplash

As New سԹgets ready for the festive season under the new, the emergence of thevariant is a reminder this pandemic is far from over.

The newis already fuelling a new wave of infections in South Africa and there ishospitalisations are increasing.

Data from the South African COVID-19 monitoring consortium show the impact of the Omicron variant.SACMC Epidemic Explorer,

Omicron has alreadyand the question now is whether it will get to New سԹduring the summer holiday season and potentially affect plans for border openings.

New سԹis currently planning to startand allowing quarantee-free entry from early 2022, first to fully vaccinated New سԹcitizens arriving from Australia after January 16, and then for New Zealanders arriving from all other countries after mid-February. There’s already some discussion about whether this plan may have to be reviewed.

Omicron contains 32 mutations in the spike protein alone. These arethat may make the virus more transmissible and better at evading immunity. There is also some evidence to suggest it poses a.

ٳsuggests more children are being hospitalised with moderate to severe symptoms with Omicron.

However, it is still too early to draw any firm conclusions. Data over the next few weeks will help determine the variant’s full impact.

Delta has taught us important lessons

New Zealand’sresulted in, theԻ. However, the emergence of theforced us tothat strategy.

Perhaps most importantly, Delta also taught us that when new variants emerge,for very long.

So, how prepared is New Zealand?

In the short term, New سԹis well placed to deal with Omicron. Our strong, testing and rapid genome sequencing mean that when Omicron arrives, we can respond quickly and prevent community incursion.

It is unlikely it will be our unwanted guest this Christmas. Despite this, significant challenges lie ahead in the long term, including vaccination inequity and disruptions to routine healthcare.

Percentage of the double vaccinated

In several regions, including Auckland and Canterbury, 90% of the eligible population are now. High vaccination rates may blunt the extent of future potential waves of infection, but significant inequities in vaccination levels remain.

We know that vaccinated people transmit COVID-19unvaccinated people, but only 70% of Māori have received.

Even without COVID-19 spread widely, there is alreadyDzԻɾٳ, be that in,ǰ.

So far, New سԹhas been luckier than other countries whereabout disruptions to routine healthcare.may leave patients with treatable conditions suffering illnesses that.

New سԹhas one of thein the world. While the government has announced $644 million to, it will.

Although unlikely, should Omicron breach our border, it will have to be tackled against the backdrop of trying to manage the current Delta outbreak.

vaccinations are set to start at the end of January. However, low vaccination levels are often in areas where health provision and hospitals. This will need to be incorporated into the rollout strategy to ensurevaccination rates.

Looking forward to Christmas and beyond

The Auckland border willon December 15 and many are bracing themselves for a. Calls forhave emerged as popular summer holiday spots such asand iwi are asking people to stay away from some destinations.

Our analysis by regional tourism areas in the map below supports this. It shows most regional tourism areas have low vaccination rates, especially for Māori and Pacific peoples.

As New سԹheads into the holiday season,such as mask wearing, physical distancing, hand hygiene, contact tracing, case isolation and vaccination will remain essential.

Mandating theincreased the number of scans while less than 1% of paid staff at St John’s ambulance service left due to the.

have suggested the emergence of Omicron could be a result of low levels of vaccine coverage in developing nations.

The root of this is that the worldto stop the spread of COVID-19.

While some countries, including New Zealand, have had domestic success at controlling COVID-19, wealthy countries around the world continue to. This ultimately gives the virus more opportunities to replicate and.

Omicron should act as ato ensure worldwide equitable vaccine delivery before even more concerning variants.

This article was originally published on.


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